The leading idea of the work of the Comenius University (UBR) team is reduction of loss risk by analyzing optimization problems on Markov chain models. To construct the latter conditional probabilities based on observations have to be computed. Parallely, methods of information value assessment are being developed. Particular models concern several social benefit areas.
- Disaster: In cooperation with the IIASA team its model of forest fire prevention is being further developed by: Calculation of optimal thresholds for the fire danger classes. The existing model uses fixed thresholds without any justification of their values. Optimization of thresholds leads to cost reduction. Application of the risk-based approach. So far, only the average values of the distribution have been considered. Therefore, the analysis of the properties of the distribution tails was impossible. The application of VaR and CVaR techniques appears to be promising.
- Health: In cooperation with GlaxoSmithKline researchers a basic assessment of losses caused by a pandemic influenza has been worked out and is being further developed. The material will be submitted to the National Pandemic Committee of Slovakia. The first picture shows probability distributions of total costs under various vaccination scenarios. The second picture depicts a decrease of the variation of total costs provided using more precise data ( pre-vaccinaton effectiveness in particular). It serves as an example of benefit from related observations and research.